Status of XXV2 ¶
In the case you didn’t know, XXV2 is my second node with a low promotional commission (this page outlines my intended commission schedule).
So far it’s completed 7 eras and earned reasonably well (in fact, it’s earned more than XXV (my “primary” node), but less for me due to nominators having more of total stake on XXV2).
In era 52 I realized validator competition was very low, so sent some validators packing (there are many nodes with decent commissions) and retained just two small ones, limiting node earnings to me and them. The commission remained 2% as I originally intended.
Validator slot saturation in era 58 ¶
As the XX Team approved Tranche 4 of CanaryNet nodes transitioning to MainNet, additional validator slots were created for them. Now there’s 348 validators who in the program and those validators can count on Team Mulitplier (if they choose to use it).
To accommodate 75 or so new validators from Tranche 4 the XX Team created additional validator slots on the network to 325 (not even 349). But they were slow to get their shit together and that created an opening for “small stake” nodes like mine.
I happened to figure this out relatively early, which is why I kicked some validators and rejected new ones. But I stuck to my commission plan and the two small validators have been earning very nicely for seven eras so far.
But if you look at the situation in era 57, 10 or so new validators who came online after XXV2 set a commission that makes it unlikely anyone will nominate them (60, 70, 80%) or they completely reject validators. Who’s asshole now?
I would preferred that no such opportunities arose for anyone, but the rules allow it so it was bound to happen. Now, however, that’s coming to an end.
This is the situation as we enter era 57:
Before next validator election (10 hours to go) it could get worse for XXV2. In fact there’s 6 nodes waiting as I’m finishing this post.
Plan for XXV2 in era 58 and beyond ¶
Slots are almost full and XXV2’s stake is higher only than one guy’s stake. But he’s currently offline in any case.
So I’d like stick to my Christmas 2021 promotion plan and do this:
- Continue locking out new nominators for era 58, as reward is significant. There’s no reason whatsoever to pass those earnings to others, but this may not work
- If XXV2 drops out, both myself and the current nominators may (me for sure, them not necessarily) lose one day of earnings. But given that the locked node is earning me over 200xx/day compared to 20xx/day when it was completely open, there’s no need to not take the risk for me and the current nominators (they also make a 5-10 times better ROI here than elsewhere)
- If XXV2 drops in era 58 I may stop the 2% promotional program (more on that below)
- In era 59 it may be even harder to get elected so it’s likely by then I’ll open XXV2 to nominators
When I created the program I didn’t know the situation with validator slots will become so messy and unpredictable.
Now we don’t know what’s the next jump going to be (from 325 to 349, or maybe 325 to 330 to 335…).
We also don’t know how the newly announced earnings adjustments for validators will influence everything.
And we don’t know when mobility of coins will be allowed. For example, newcomers from CanaryNet can now crate another cMix ID but existing validators cannot without a lengthy 28 day unlocking process.
Summary of expected steps for election prior to era 58 and 59:
- Era 58: keep current configuration and settings (I’ll review the situation closer to election cut-off)
- Eras 59/60: more likely than not, open node to nominations
- Should I drop out in era 59 and need to get reelected for era 60, validator commission will likely stay 2%, but in the future I will not stick to the Christmas plan schedule but rather make minor adjustments depending on circumstances. I’ll update XXV2’s details in case of any changes before I make them
Why create a plan at all ¶
This may be a question some nominators ask.
For example, it seems most validators just look at the return rate shown in MainNet Explorer (I have evidence for this - XXV2 got 0 nominators on its day 1 (era 51, when it had no profitability indicator) and 10 nominators in era 52 with track record of only 1 era).
But I still think that with 500 validators and at most 16 that can be considered from one account, at least some validators will acquire some preference regarding node selection. At the same time no one likes to wake up and realize their validator hiked the commission to 60%, so those who do it now and retain node ID will have that on their dashboard (“track record”).
If you as a nominator get kicked from a node, at least your coins go to the next available node (up to 16). So I think that’s much better than raising commission on nominators. And if a nominator can nominate a handful of nodes without constantly checking what the validators are up to, that’s not bad either. (An additional benefit is if the node starts rejecting new nominations, as XXV2 did, whoever is “in” can share the benefits with the validator.)
But not everyone agrees - look at the white (light) line showing average commission for the network.
Validators are gorging on commission! Early on it was only the pools, but now also individuals.
There’s a whole bunch of new nodes that have smallish stakes. Some of them qualify for Team Multiplier but are currently misconfigured, so while they’ll soon get to a 150Kxx stake I was able to get to 125Kxx very easily, so even if XXV2 drops out in era 58 or 59, it will remain competitive against most Tranche 4 newcomers.
Take a look at XXV2’s earnings chart at the very top. It’s above average (white line) and with 7 eras of decent earnings I can afford to run in without validator commission for weeks to come.